Gene rants about the flimsy spines of the “9/11 changed everything” crowd:
Christ, you’d think it would be good news that AQ had been reduced to bloody gestures of futility, as yet hypothetical. Yes, they can shoot up a school. They can bomb a library. But any group of determined and crazy individuals can do the same. But when Columbine happens, when the D.C. Sniper happens, when the Fairfax police station shooting happens, we go on about our lives. We recognize (or most of us do) that it’s damned silly to recommend major policy changes because in an open society of 300 million people you can’t put the homeland security equivalent of a bike helmet on everything.
Conservatives see this when it comes to things like school shootings and gun ownership. They reject the chimera of a risk-free society, and recognize that, while in a costless world, the optimal number of school shootings is zero, we don’t live in such a world. However, when it comes to the entirely speculative chance of a WMD attack by a Third-World thug who never dreamed of it, they become tightly wound bundles of fear and rage, and cheer a costly, destructive war. If the Iran debate is any indication, “bomb today for a brighter tomorrow” hasn’t lost much of its appeal for the Right.
Meanwhile, George Will–who has been excellent of late–falls off a bit this week. Will has gone to see Flight 93. And he says “The message of the movie is: We are all potential soldiers. And we all may be, at any moment, at the war’s front, because in this war the front can be anywhere.” You can almost picture George on the way to the elevator at ABC, eyes coolly scanning the lobby for anything amiss, one hand in pocket, clutching his hidden quill pen with steely purpose.
Yes, any of us could find ourselves in the middle of a terrorist attack. And we hope that if the call comes, we’ll be able to acquit ourselves half as well as the brave men on Flight 93. But we should also realize that the opportunities for such heroism are likely to be vanishingly rare. There’s more likely to be a truck or a bloodclot or a cluster of cancerous cells with your name on it. And one ought not to be hysterical about any of it.
I think part of the problem here is that at a deep psychological level, we’re all very bad at math. When we see an airplane smash into the World Trade Center, or we read about kids being shot up in Columbine, we’re not psychologically equipped to discount our feelings of horror by the relevant odds of those things happening to the ones we love. As a result, we’re terrified of terrorist attacks that kill 3000 people every 5 years, but we’re nonchalant about automobile accidents, which kill 3000 people every month. That’s not because terrorist attacks are inherently worse, it’s simply that terrorist attacks make better media spectacles, so we hear about them more and we’re more likely to remember them and worry about them.
Our grandparents faced Nazi Germany, a modern, technologically advanced nation that had a realistic shot at conquering all of Europe. Our parents faced Communist Russia, which came within hair’s breadth of launching a nuclear exchange that would have killed tens of millions of people. Our generation is facing a few hundred fanatics who live in tents in the desert and manage to kill a few hundred people every year. Yet to hear a lot of people tell it, we’re facing a grave threat to our way of life.
The biggest threat to our way of life is that we’ll lose a sense of perspective. We’re not the first generation to face a dangerous world. Previous generations coped with far greater dangers without compromising fundamental freedoms.